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Background

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) focuses on identifying, characterizing, and managing uncertainties in computational models and real-world systems. These uncertainties are classified into aleatory and epistemic types. Aleatory uncertainty, arising from inherent variability in natural systems, is irreducible, such as fluctuations in material properties. Epistemic uncertainty results from incomplete knowledge or assumptions in the modeling process and can be reduced with better information or models. Both types often coexist in practical problems, and quantifying them is essential for reliable predictions in various scientific and engineering disciplines. Forward Uncertainty Quantification (FUQ) is a specialized area within UQ that predicts how uncertain inputs affect model outputs, considering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. This process is vital for developing robust models that reflect real-world behavior under uncertainty. For example, FUQ helps ensure the safety and reliability of engineering structures by assessing how uncertainties influence their performance, aiding in decision-making, risk management, and optimization.


Topics

We welcome submissions covering a wide range of topics related to FUQ, with an emphasis on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, including but not limited to:

  • Stochastic response analysis
  • Reliability analysis
  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • Risk analysis and risk-informed decision making
  • Applications of FUQ techniques in practical engineering

Note that all contributions should explicitly acknowledge aleatory and/or epistemic uncertainties.


Special Issue Publication Dates

Paper submission deadline: July 31, 2025

Initial review completed: October 31, 2025

Publication date: March 31, 2026


Guest Editors


Submission Guidelines

  • Please submit your manuscript via the Journal of ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering website.
  • If you already have an Editorial Manager account, log in as author and select Submit Paper at the bottom of the page. If you do not have an account, select Submissions and follow the steps. In either case, at the Paper Submittal page, select the Journal of ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering and then select the special collection Forward Uncertainty Quantification for Aleatory & Epistemic Uncertainties: Methodologies, Tools, and Applications.
  • Detailed information on the submission process is provided in the “Publishing in ASCE Journals” section of the ASCE Author Center .
  • Papers received after the deadline or papers not selected for inclusion in the Special Issue may be accepted for publication in a regular issue.

Please note that all accepted papers submitted in response to this Call for Papers will be published in regular issues of the Journal of ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering and assembled online on a page dedicated to this Special Collection. See Journal of ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering Special Collections for the list of Special Collections already published.